The Sheets, because they are printed on sheets of paper a little larger than a notepad) incorporate wind, weight carried and, most importantly, ground loss into their speed figures. There are plenty of valid ways to use speed figures, but calculating an average is not one of them because a single aberrant result can create a totally misleading average. Improbable? There was no betting from home computers. Our figures have not changed during this time. Two races later, Queen Arella covered the same distance in 59.54. Having Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in his corner doesn’t hurt either. What you describe is a phenomenon well known in harness racing. 2020 Kentucky Derby Order of Finish. They can arise when the track’s timing system misfires. Aside from the actual figures, the Ragozin system is built on projecting how a horse will react to its last race. Based on his first 11 races, shocking. 2020 Arkansas Derby odds, contenders: Horse racing insider gives surprising picks, predictions Bob Weir is heavily invested in the Beyer Speed Figure and locked in his 2020 … Why did your attempt in Australia fail?–Jason Bergstrom, San DiegoA. Races 6 and 8 at Penn National on August 12, 2020 were for maidens run over six furlongs on dirt. Next, the trainer takes a shot in a stakes to help the track fill the card. I make the speed figures for Southern California, and I was perplexed all spring by the low numbers for 2-year-olds running 4 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita. And we understand that you would feel your winning filly didn’t get the credit she deserved.The explanation derives from the fact that Belmont can be a very changeable track. He is an author of 2 popular books "The Newcomer's Guide to Horse Racing" and "The 10 Cent Superfecta". Most of these providers use the same basic methodology as Beyer but calculate the data differently and offer different bells and whistles, so speed figures will be different on a company-to-company basis – and some are also more accurate than others. Ghostzapper, who has two BSFs in the top 15, won the 2005 Met Mile with a time of 1:33.20 and received a Beyer Speed Figure of 122 for his performance. I knew one of savviest gamblers in Australia, and even he could only hope to grind out a narrow edge versus the bookmakers. I am a devout believer in our speed figures, but handicapping judgment must sometimes override them. They can improve dramatically, they can regress, they can be compromised by injury, so it would be unrealistic to make a forecast for the rescheduled Derby on the basis of speed figures earned in the spring. If a horse has been competing recently on grass, on sloppy tracks, or in route races and his best form is dirt/fast tracks/sprints, a bettor might focus on a figure earned weeks or months ago. The winner, Combination, was clocked in 57.16 seconds and earned a figure of 84. Final time of the Holy Bull was 1:43.19 after fractions of :23.28, :46.97, 1:11.36 and 1:36.58. Our calculations for such races had always made sense in the past -- the average for open maiden special weight 2-year-old races from 2016 to 2019 was 66. Will Beyer Speed Figures in May 2020 be helpful for handicapping a September 2020 Kentucky Derby? Sometimes it will speed up significantly for a single race. Bring your thumb down to the horses who ran at least a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, and begin your handicapping from there. Thanks for your question, Joseph. Thro-Graph’s speed figures are generally a few points lower than Ragozin so it’s not unusual to see a horse get a 0 on Ragozin and minus-3 on Thoro-Graph and it will say the same thing about how that horse stands in regards to its rivals. Is this in the character of horses to try to keep up with much better runners? Just curious about figures at Belmont on June 18. But this year most juveniles ran significantly slower. I can offer a theory. Post 9:36 AM - Jul 23 #4 2020-07-23T16:36 But as in the case of the Queen Arella race, all of the horses in the field improved when they ran again. Beyer on Demand - Single Horse. Then Beyer established a table of pars, which was the expected speed figure for a winner at each level in the condition book. There’s another problem in adjusting speed figures based on established norms: it inevitably leads to a watering down of the figures over time. So Darn Hot earned a 75 Beyer figure going 1 1/16 miles in 1:41.17. That’s a difference of 1.3 seconds. An impressive gate to wire maiden winner in his second start going six furlongs, Ginobili got an 83 Beyer Speed figure for his efforts, which ranks third among San Vicente starters. We believe that the figures of 98 for the Classic and 91 for the Derby do just that, though we would be happier if the data for the day had been more straightforward.Q. Basically it gives a numerical representation of how fast a horse ran taking into account the factors such as competition, track bias, and the actual time of the horse. Q. View information about the top race horses and their winnings at DRF.com today. Beyer Speed Figures The Awesome Again, a 4 1/2-length win over stablemate Maximum Security, produced a third straight career-top Beyer Speed Figure and made him the morning-favorite for the Classic. On May 25, a colt named Hendavid won an open MSW race with a stunningly low figure of 36. A. It takes time, but handicappers can craft their own speed figures. American Pharoah’s Triple Crown victories in 2015 were unexceptional, from the speed-figure standpoint, but he recorded a 120 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in October. Basically it gives a numerical representation of how fast a horse ran taking into account the factors such as competition, track bias, and the actual time of the horse. “If you want to make Beyer Speed Figures you can still a buy a copy of ‘Picking Winners’ and do it yourself. But why has everybody in the field improved so dramatically? Q. I’ve been using your speed figures for at least 20 years with good success. I have been told that you tried to apply your speed figures to Australian racing but it did not work out. DRF Beyer Speed Figures. Thousand Words, one of Bob Baffert’s two trainees in the 2020 Derby, boasts the second-best Beyer Speed Figure in this field behind the favorite, Tiz the Law. As an introduction to speed figures, here’s a quick look at some of them: The Daily Racing Form is the exclusive outlet for the Beyer Speed Figures, listing them in its past performances that also include running lines, a pace figure, some pertinent stats, info on turf and mud breeding, workouts, and a couple of sentences about the horses chances. Thoro-Graph was founded by Jerry Brown, who used to work for Ragozin, so the figures are constructed akin to The Sheets. To return to your example: If a horse runs a figure of 79 finishing last in a stakes, and then drops into a more realistic spot where 79 is the top figure, I would not hesitate to bet him. Moreover, at many tracks, turf races with long run-ups and wide rail settings produce final times that I suspect are inaccurate. How to calculate horse speed ratings How to calculate horse speed ratings beyer on speed new strategies for racetrack betting Dec 04, 2020 Posted By EL James Media Publishing TEXT ID b51412bc Online PDF Ebook Epub Library ... that by some calculations count fleets beyer speed figures might have reached 150 as beyer has noted a speed figure is a numerical expression beyer on speed … If a horse possesses a modicum of speed and tries to chase high-class speedsters, he may tire so badly that he runs a disastrously bad race. If we made our calculation based on the track variant that applied on the rest of the card, and which gave Its All Relevant a 99, So Darn Hot would have earned a winning Beyer Speed Figures of 86.The filly had earned a 66 in her one previous start on the dirt. Queen Arella had won her debut at Gulfstream Park impressively, by four lengths, but her figure was a paltry 44. When making your figures, do you add the run-up distance to the distance of the race?–Ray Howard, London, Ontario, CanadaA. In the Beyer system of numbers, the claiming race was 11 points faster than the stakes. This is a common scenario in turf races.What should a figure-maker do with a race such as the 2020 Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf? Beyer applied that process to all of a card’s dirt races and turf races (keeping the dirt and turf races separate) and then he would average the pluses and minuses to determine whether the track was slow or fast. Over the last 15 years, the winning speed figures in the Derby have been mediocre, because the lightly raced entrants don’t have the seasoning to deliver great performances.This evidence does not necessarily mean that U.S. Thoroughbreds are in decline. Art Collector has the speed and class to win the Preakness Stakes. There’s another problem in adjusting speed figures based on established norms: it inevitably leads to a watering down of the figures over time. A 106 would have been good enough to win any Kentucky Derby since Big Brown’s victory in 2008.But the historical norms of the Kentucky Derby may not be relevant on September 5, 2020 at Churchill Downs. One difference between the two is that Thoro-Graph offers a condensed running line and also plenty of trainer, jockey, and breeding stats to complement the speed figures. She had been a $600,000 purchase and she would be expected to improve with experience.If the winner ran an 86, runner-up Thankful would get a figure of 77. Country House was an exception last year, but Maximum Security, who actually crossed the line first, had two 100-plus Beyer races prior to the Derby. Their past performances also offer a wealth of stats, including percentage winners by running style at the race’s distance, a prime power number, average class figure. It is challenging enough to create a set of figures for a new U.S. track, and in Argentina I was starting from scratch, using information in Spanish (which I don’t read.) Trainers of 2-year-olds may have felt that there was no reason to subject their youngsters to hard training with the future in doubt. That was Monomoy Girl’s third victory in as many 2020 races, and it came on the heels of her 115 Equibase in the Ruffian Stakes at Belmont Park in July. The result: I didn’t make a peso. The past performances that U.S. players see for international races probably gave you a false impression of racing in Australia, Hong Kong, and Japan. Unless there was some incredible speed-up in the track, it seems to me that the Louisiana Derby Beyer Figure should be much higher than 91. 134 – Groovy – Belmont Park – 6 Furlongs – June 21st 1987 Somehow, I missed the hullabaloo over the Beyer Speed Figures given to Bolt d’Oro and Paradise Woods recently. For example, times of 1:12 at six furlongs, 1:25 at seven furlongs and 1:38 at a mile all equaled a 94 to Beyer, who used a numeric system in which the higher the speed figure, the better the performance. Nevertheless, I have always been intrigued by the idea of making figures abroad, and over the years I have tried them in Australia (with so-so results), Hong Kong (poor results), and Sweden (terrible results.) After considerable study, I concluded that one pound equaled four-tenths of a point on the Beyer scale. In 2016 Arrogate was a late bloomer who missed the Derby but earned a speed figure of 122 winning the Travers Stakes in August. So why have speed figures in the Triple Crown series and the Kentucky Derby prep races been so low? The last five runnings of the Kentucky Derby produced winning Beyer Speed Figures of 103, 102, 103, 105 and 97. October 10, 2020. But by the time I went to Buenos Aires, I had almost as much confidence in my figures for Palermo as I do for those at Belmont Park. Since Beyer speed figures started being used about 40 years ago, the winner of the Kentucky Derby typically has run at least one race that earned a Beyer over 100. In your opinion, why have the Beyer Figures for 3-year-olds headed to the Derby dropped so far in the past decade to 15 years? On the surface it seems that their figures should be about 10 to 12 points apart. That’s the reason his figures in the Triple Crown were so low—103, 97, 101. A. I would like to say that my colleagues and I are quietly making a fortune with our Longchamp figs, but this is not the case. Thus, if a horse was assigned to carry 20 pounds more than he did in his prior start, I would subtract 8 points from his previous figure. 3 Art Collector (5-2) at a similar price given the latter’s nagging foot issue, despite comparable speed figures (100, 103, 102 last three races). By using The Sheets, a handicapper looks at a horse’s last few races and then projects whether the pattern of those numbers indicates it will move forward, regress, or duplicate its last figure. However, an average of 60 for the three numbers is in no way meaningful. When horses crawl the first half-mile in 50 seconds in a one-mile race over a firm course, it’s usually impossible to compare the final time to a race with a sensible pace – even if both are run at the same distance with the same run-up. The 2-3-4-5 finishers increased their figures by an average of 20 points. Will Beyer Speed Figures in May 2020 be helpful for handicapping a September 2020 Kentucky Derby? Though he was not the founding father of speed figures, Washington Post turf writer and handicapper Andy Beyer made them popular through his 1975 book “Picking Winners.” In it, Beyer explained his take on speed figures and how he developed numbers that could reflect horses’ performances at different distances. To illustrate how competitive this race is, take a closer look at the Beyer, Brisnet and Timeform Figures for this year's Classic probables below. 134 – Groovy – Belmont Park – 6 Furlongs – June 21st 1987 The sixth was for $16,000 open maiden claimers, while the eighth was a maiden special event for Pennsylvania-bred fillies and mares. The Sheets do not provide standard past performances lines as found with the other companies or accompanying stats. Monomoy Girl had a solid 104 to lead the way followed by Rushing Fall and Art Collector. Beyer Speed Figure is a performance measuring tool for North American horse racing created during the 1970's by Andrew Beyer. 0:09. Country House was an exception last year, but Maximum Security, who actually crossed the line first, had two 100-plus Beyer … We arbitrarily assigned the race a 97, which better reflected the talent of the field. In it, Beyer explained his take on speed figures and how he developed numbers that could reflect horses’ performances at different distances. This simple number gives us a basis to judge the horses competitive ability. The pandemic has, of course, disrupted racing across the country, causing extended cancellations as well as uncertainty about future racing schedules. For example, times of 1:12 at six furlongs, 1:25 at seven furlongs and 1:38 at a mile all equaled a 94 to Beyer, who used a numeric system in which the higher the speed figure, the better the performance. In fact, I’m ashamed to say that I only learned of the controversy yesterday, while reading Matt Hess’ fine piece on Bolt d’Oro. Essentially the Beyer Speed Figure is a measurement where the Beyer number is a reflection of both the speed of the track when the race was run combined with the finishing time of the race. They can be found in many track programs, and can be purchased online, where you’ll find the speed figures categorized and additional statistics provided. The fans there go about the business of gambling in deadly earnest.I wrote about my 1991 Australia adventure in “Beyer on Speed.” After developing speed figures for the country, I lived in Sydney for three months and played the horses intensely. September 19, 2020 This year’s Triple Crown series has been anything but typical. The Beyer Speed Figures were designed for American racing, with its relatively uniform oval dirt tracks, and I would not know how to deal with the irregular, undulating turf courses of Europe. It has always made me wonder if you and your staff create figures for foreign horses [for your own use] but don’t offer them to the public. Let’s say the par for a maiden special weight sprint was an 84 and the winner ran an 86, that would mean the track was fast by two points. – George WeaverA. There’s another problem in adjusting speed figures based on established norms: it inevitably leads to a watering down of the figures over time. This was below the winner’s top efforts, but it gave figures to the seven fillies behind that were in line with their previous form.Should we have put the figure for the race in italics because it “carries less weight than one generated by data?” The answer is no. Were you a harness bettor at some time in your life? I begin to study a race by looking at each horse’s most recent figure, identifying the top last-race figure in the field. Talented young horses are raced sparingly. And a preposterous figure is no less preposterous if it is “generated by data.”Q. Since Beyer speed figures started being used about 40 years ago, the winner of the Kentucky Derby typically has run at least one race that earned a Beyer over 100. We might be wrong. In 2008 I spent month playing the horses in Argentina, where most of the sport consists of speed-oriented dirt racing that isn’t so alien to an American handicapper. Les Figures de l'ombre FRENCH DVDRIP x264 2017. But my caller’s evidence appeared correct. Their final prep race may be scheduled four or five weeks before the Derby (an unthinkable idea for old-time trainers). Beyer Speed Figures is a Trademark by Beyer Associates, LLC, this trademark has a nationality of Florida in the United States. They also include Pace ratings, Race ratings and Class ratings to augment their speed figures. admin @ September 17, 2020 at 6:08 pm. Preakness 2020: Post positions ... And after a month to recover from a performance that received a 105 Beyer Speed Figure, look for Authentic to wire the field in a third straight Grade 1. The New Orleans Classic, run earlier on the card, was run in 1:50.27, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 98. That’s my theory. Starship Jubilee was allowed to set a crawling pace, running the first six furlongs in 1:14.66, three full seconds slower than the fraction for the claimers. Some tracks employ a long run-up so that races don’t start too close to a turn. ... what his action looks like these days and the evolution of speed figures over ... “The commentators on TV were just riding the Beyer Speed Figures… The betting pools were too small to accommodate serious wagers. Beyer Speed Figures. Hmm.This was a judgment call, and not an easy one, but we thought it was unlikely that all three fillies had improved so much at the same. The figures enabled me to break even (actually, I won $500 – before expenses) but they certainly didn’t give me an edge. Aside from the basic speed figure principles, the Ragozin Sheets (a.k.a. And if a horse is trailing the field in the stretch, his jockey may not bother to urge him as he would if the horse were battling for the lead. Our normal calculations would have given the race a figure of 107, with the top six finishers all improving significantly upon their career-best efforts, Tap It to Win would have looked like a standout in the Belmont Stakes if we had accepted the figure. They offer similar past performances but create their own speed figures. It was a $16,000 claimer, and the winning time was 1:41.66. If 2-year-olds made their racing debut with less preparation that they would have in a normal year, they might reasonably earn poor figures and then improve significantly with the benefit of racing experience. There is no historical data on which to base speed figures for such a setup. The Juvenile Fillies is shaping up as one of the most competitive races of the entire Breeders' Cup, led by four Grade 1 prep winners: Princess Noor, Simply Ravishing, Dayoutoftheoffice and Vequist. Including the undefeated Girl Daddy and Souper Sensational, there are six fillies with strong credentials who could win this race. Ghostzapper, who has two BSFs in the top 15, won the 2005 Met Mile with a time of 1:33.20 and received a Beyer Speed Figure of 122 for his performance. A projected figure that accomplishes these aims does not deserve to be stigmatized. Thanks for your question, Joseph. These five points are built into the calculation of our speed figures.I wish that I could offer such a clear, confident explanation of run-ups in turf races. The father of speed figures is generally considered to be Len Ragozin, who teamed with Len Friedman to create and sell highly popular and effective speed figures in the years before Beyer’s book. In any case, I try to look at a figure in the context of the way a horse earned it – i.e., what kind of trip he had. In the last five years, horses such as Arrogate (122), American Pharoah (120), Shared Belief (115) and Bayern (113) have delivered outstanding performances in the latter part of their 3-year-old campaigns. Will Beyer Speed Figures in May 2020 be helpful for handicapping a September 2020 Kentucky Derby? This was a solid field of older stakes horses, but the fractional times for the race – a half-mile in 50.09, six furlongs in 1:14.36 – were slower than any of the five other two-turn dirt races on the card. A horse runs in an optional-claiming race and gets a figure of 72. Choose any horse! Q. I always wondered why in Daily Racing Form there are no Beyer Figures for foreign horses. We have a mountain of data showing that the six-furlong races are five Beyer points faster, in relation to 6 1/2  and seven furlongs, than they would be on a track with a normal configuration. If a horse receives a figure of 80 after a hard head-and-head duel for the lead, I’ll think: “This effort was better than an 80.” If he earned an 80 after getting an unchallenged lead and setting a slow pace, I may conclude that he has little chance of duplicating that figure. Es wurde von Andrew Beyer, Kolumnist der Washington Post, in den frühen 1970er-Jahren entwickelt.Jedem Rennpferd, das in den USA oder Kanada ein Galopprennen bestreitet, wird nach jedem Rennen eine Punktzahl (die Beyer Speed Figure) zugewiesen, die seine … In such cases, we monitor the subsequent performances of the horses in the field and review our initial judgment. The Beyer speed rating is one of the biggest changes that horse racing handicappers have ever experienced. Over a four-month period, a lot can happen to 3-year-old racehorses. It was founded in the early 1970’s by Andrew Beyer, who was a columnist for the Washington Post.The Beyer Speed Figures were first incorporated into book form in 1975, and in 1992 the Daily Racing Form began assigning the numbers to all horses on their cards. This simple number gives us a basis to judge the horses competitive ability. The Beyer Graph is accessible from the Charts and Graphs option in the main nav. October 10, 2020. The John Shirreffs-trained horse hasn't posted the best speed figures. Remarkably, Beyer’s speed figures and formula have withstood the test of time and his 1975 book is as valuable and informative now as it was when it was first published. This is the case for six-furlong races at Churchill Downs, and so the starting gate is positioned about 180 feet behind the pole where the timing of the race begins. In the modern era, of course, training styles have changed. The colors of the lines on the graph correspond to the horse’s saddlecloth colors for the race. In 1991, The Racing Times, an upstart newspaper founded by Steven Crist, put Beyer Speed Figures into print for the first time. I developed speed figures in the 1970s when I realized that time was the most important single factor in the game, and that I needed precise calculations to compare horses’ times over different distances and different tracks.
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